College Baseball Bubble Watch (May 3rd, 2022)

The college baseball regular season is winding down, and we're just a few weeks away from Selection Monday.


There are 72 teams in contention for an at-large bid come Selection Monday. If there are no bid-stealers from conference tournaments, that leaves 55 teams competing for 31 spots. In other words, the bubble is going to shrink a lot before the end of the year.


Here are the leagues with a chance at earning an at-large bid.



Leagues With Potential At-Large Teams (17 Conferences)


ACC (12)


Locks (5): Miami, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame


Should be in (3): Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech


Work left to do (2): Wake Forest, Pitt


Bubble about to burst (2): Clemson, North Carolina


Clemson was swept by Louisville last weekend but moved up in the RPI. The Tigers are hanging on a thread. Several teams are hovering around .500 in ACC play, an important threshold for ensuring an at-large berth.


American (3)


Work left to do (2): Tulane, ECU


Bubble about to burst (1): Houston


Tulane, ECU, UCF, and Houston are duking it out at the top of the American standings. UCF (RPI 97) likely doesn't have a path forward unless they win the American tournament. However, both Tulane and ECU will have a shot if they don't earn the automatic bid.



ASUN (2)


Should be in (2): Liberty, Kennesaw State


Both Liberty and Kennesaw State have top 40 RPIs and have a clear shot at at-large bids.


Big 12 (6)


Locks (1): Oklahoma State


Should be in (1): TCU


Work left to do (4): Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia


Several of the Big 12 teams are currently weighed down by their RPIs, which is keeping them from being locks. Oklahoma (31), TCU (32), West Virginia (42), and Texas Tech (50) will all become locks if they can maintain top 30 RPIs over the next few weeks. Texas (RPI 23) will need to stay near .500 in conference play to become a lock (currently 9-9)



Big East (1)


Work left to do (1): UConn


UConn with its 35 RPI and 37-8 overall record will be under consideration come Selection Monday should they slip up in the Big East tournament.


Big Ten (5)


Should be in (1): Maryland


Work left to do (4): Rutgers, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan


The Big Ten currently checks in at eight in conference RPI, which sets the Big Ten up for two to three bids. Rutgers is the clear second option as of now, as the Scarlet Knights are currently leading the Big Ten standings.


CUSA (5)


Locks (1): Southern Miss


Work left to do (2): Louisiana Tech, UTSA


Bubble about to burst (2): Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion


In our most recent projection, we had three Conference USA teams making the field. It will be difficult for CUSA to earn more teams than that, so Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion both have work to do.



Ivy League (1)


Work left to do (1): Penn


It's a narrow window, but Penn (RPI 38) has a chance at an at-large bid should they not survive the Ivy League postseason.


Missouri Valley (3)


Should be in (1): DBU


Bubble about to burst (2): Evansville, Southern Illinois


DBU is three games back in the Missouri Valley standings, but smart scheduling has led to an exceptional RPI (6). Should the Patriots not win the MVC Tournament, they'll likely still make it in the NCAA Tournament. Evansville (RPI 69) and Southern Illinois (88) will both have a shot at the automatic berth and an outside chance at an at-large bid.


Mountain West (1)


Work left to do (1): Nevada